This market tracks whether Cloudflare experiences another critical service incident by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC. A critical incident (red) is defined as a widespread outage, severe degradation, or security event that materially impacts a significant portion of Cloudflare’s global network or core services, excluding minor or localized disruptions. The market resolves based on Cloudflare’s official status reports, post-incident disclosures, or confirmation by reputable technology news outlets corroborating Cloudflare’s classification or impact assessment.

1. Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences at least one incident that Cloudflare itself classifies as Critical (red) at any time from the market’s open through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC (inclusive). If no such incident is classified as Critical (red) for an incident whose start time falls within this period, the market resolves to “No”. There is no TIE outcome in this market.
2. Definition of a Critical Cloudflare Incident: For this market, a “critical Cloudflare incident” means an event affecting Cloudflare services that Cloudflare designates with severity level “Critical” (often displayed as a red status/incident severity) on its official status or incident reporting channels. This includes outages, severe performance degradation, or security events that materially impact a significant portion of Cloudflare’s global network or core services, as long as Cloudflare marks the incident severity as Critical; localized or minor disruptions that are not marked Critical do not qualify.
3. Timeframe and Incident Start Time: An incident counts if Cloudflare’s official incident timeline shows that the incident’s start time is on or before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC, even if the incident continues or is resolved after that time. Incidents that start before the market’s open but are later upgraded to Critical during the market period still count, as long as the incident is classified as Critical and its timeline overlaps the period up to the cutoff. Incidents that start after December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC do not count, even if reported or discussed earlier.
4. Official Sources and Evidence: The primary sources for classification and timing are (in order of priority): (a) Cloudflare’s official status page and incident history, including archived or historical incident entries; (b) official Cloudflare communications such as blog posts, security/incident write‑ups, or regulatory disclosures that clearly identify a Critical incident and its timing. Reputable technology news outlets may be used as secondary corroboration where they directly quote or clearly rely on Cloudflare’s own classification and timeline; independent uptime monitors or third‑party reports may be used only to clarify ambiguities when primary sources are incomplete or temporarily unavailable.
5. Revisions, Reclassifications, and Missing Labels: If Cloudflare changes an incident’s severity classification (for example, from Critical to a lower level or vice versa), the market is resolved based on Cloudflare’s final published classification as of the time the market is resolved, provided the incident still meets the timeframe criteria in Rule 3. If an incident clearly matches Cloudflare’s description of a Critical‑level impact but Cloudflare never publicly labels it as Critical (or removes all severity labels), it does not count unless an official Cloudflare communication explicitly states that it was treated as a Critical incident. If multiple qualifying Critical incidents occur, only one is needed for a “Yes” outcome.
6. Resolution Timing: The market may be resolved to “Yes” as soon as a qualifying Critical (red) incident is confirmed using the sources in Rule 4. If no such incident has been identified by a reasonable time after December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC, the market resolves to “No” once the available evidence indicates that no qualifying Critical incident occurred in the defined period. If credible evidence surfaces after the cutoff that a previously undisclosed or misclassified incident meeting these rules occurred before the cutoff, the market may be resolved or re‑resolved in line with platform policies, using the best available evidence.
7. Ambiguities and Conflicting Evidence: In cases of conflicting or ambiguous information, Cloudflare’s own final, official incident records and severity labels take precedence over secondary sources. Where multiple official Cloudflare sources conflict on details, the market organizer will apply these rules using the most specific and recent official information about severity and timing, aiming to determine whether at least one incident clearly meets the Critical (red) classification and timeframe required for a “Yes” resolution; if this cannot be established from credible evidence, the market resolves to “No”.