Bet on whether X (formerly Twitter) will re-launch Vine by the end of 2025, following Elon Musk's recent announcement to revive the short-video platform "in AI form." This market taps into speculation around X's evolving features, with uncertainty about the exact rollout timeline and integration despite Musk's stated intentions.

1. This market will resolve to "Yes" if X relaunches Vine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
2. "Relaunching Vine" is defined as launching a platform and/or feature that performs similar functions to Vine (e.g., short-form video creation and sharing), and is branded as a "relaunch of Vine" or explicitly tied to the Vine name by Elon Musk or X itself. Note - the relaunch must be live and broadly accessible to the public (e.g., via the X app or website) before the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes". AI integration alone does not qualify unless it meets the full criteria of a functional relaunch.
3. The primary resolution source will be official announcements or updates from Elon Musk, X's official channels (e.g., @X or @elonmusk on X), or the X platform itself, however a consensus of credible reporting from established outlets like Reuters, Bloomberg, or TechCrunch will also be used. Social media rumors or unverified leaks will not be considered.
4. Early resolution may occur if X officially confirms the relaunch is live before the deadline, triggering "Yes," or if Musk or X explicitly cancels or delays it beyond 2025, leading to "No" by arbitrator consensus.